Elena Zimina's Real Estate

TALKING POINTS … Despite dropping 6 percent, mortgage applications for new home purchases still came in better than expected, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Builder Application Survey data for November 2015. Broken up by product type, conventional loans composed 68.4 percent of loan applications, FHA loans composed 18.1 percent, RHS/USDA loans composed 0.9 percent and VA loans composed 12.6 percent. Additionally, the average loan size of new homes decreased from $320,881 in October to $320,854 in November.

HOTTEST 2016 MARKETS FOR MILLENNIALS  Numbering 43.5 million, the older group of millennials (aged 25 to 34) makes up 13.6 percent of the U.S. population but fully 30 percent of the current population of existing-home buyers. In 2016, millennials have the power to remake the real estate landscape wherever they choose to settle. But where will that be? realtor.com  is forecasting the top 10 markets likely to see a surge of millennial buyers and five places these buyers are likely to leave next year. The ranking takes into proprietary 2016 sales and price projections, the representation of millennial users among viewers of “for sale” listing pages on  realtor.com  from July to October, and the share of head of households aged 25 to 34 relative to all heads of households, from 2015 Nielsen Pop-Facts. Atlanta, Ga. Pittsburgh, Pa. Memphis, Tenn. Boston, Mass. Austin, Texas San Diego, Calif. Seattle, Wash. Houston, Texas Denver, Colo. Charlotte, N.C. realto...

Calif. median home price: California 2015: California: $475,990 Calif. highest median home price by region/county: Marin, $1,207,140 Calif. lowest median home price by region/county: Kings, $183,330

REAL HOME PRICES COULD TAKE 17 YEARS TO RETURN TO PEAK Source: Wall St. Journal New analysis by real-estate information firm CoreLogic finds that when adjusted for inflation, home prices are years away from hitting the lofty heights of the housing boom. Indeed, economists there say that prices are unlikely to surpass 2006 levels until 2023 or beyond, some 17 years past the peak. The rise and fall in prices without adjusting for inflation matter for existing homeowners because they determine whether or not they are underwater on their mortgages. The rapid run-up in prices in recent years has made it easier for people to sell their homes because they no longer owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth.

TALKING POINTS … Pending home sales barely moved in October as the housing market starts to flatline in the fall, according to the most recent report from the National Association of REALTORS®. The index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, has now increased year over year for 14 consecutive months. In fact, October’s pending sales were 3.9 percent above October 2014. Despite rising prices and tight inventories in the West, the region posted a 1.7 percent uptick in October and is 10.4 percent above a year ago.

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose more than expected in September, according to the latest S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index. The 20-city composite rose 5.5 percent year over year in September, compared with consensus estimates for a 5.2 percent rise. The S&P Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures all nine U.S. census divisions, was up 4.9 percent from the same time last year, ticking up at a slightly faster pace than August's 4.6 percent increase.

Source: Harvard A new research brief from Harvard University analyzes the extent to which young renter households in their 20s and 30s are burdened by their student loan payments and explore the potential implications of these payment burdens on future decisions to pursue homeownership. Reflecting both increases in student loan payment amounts and income declines among young renters, the research finds that the prevalence of young renters with medium or high student debt burdens accelerated following the Great Recession. Between 2007 and 2013, the share of young renters with high student loan burdens nearly quadrupled, from 5 percent to 19 percent.

HIGHER INTEREST RATES LOWER CALIFORNIA HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN THIRD QUARTER Source: C.A.R. California’s housing market softened in October as both statewide sales and median price contracted from the previous month; however, the market is still on target to meet forecast projections, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). Making sense of the story Home sales exceeded the 400,000 level in October for the seventh consecutive month and posted higher on a year-to-year basis for the ninth straight month. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 403,510 units in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The October figure was down 5.1 percent from the revised 425,120 level in September and up 1.3 percent compared with home sales in October 2014 of a revised 398,510. The year-to-year increas...

TALKING POINTS … Newly started foreclosures rose 12 percent in October from September, according to a new report from RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listing company. This is the largest monthly increase since August 2011, and more than twice the gain from September to October in the last five years. Just over 48,000 properties started the process in October, still 14 percent less than a year ago. Part of the annual increase this year could be due to already troubled loans that were modified but are now re-defaulting. More than half (57 percent) of new foreclosures in August were re-defaults, according to Black Knight Financial Services.

TALKING POINTS … The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, covering the entire nation, rose 4.7 percent in the 12 months ended in August, slightly greater than a 4.6 percent increase in July. The 20-city index jumped 5.1 percent year-over-year through August, after July’s 4.9 percent increase. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected a 5.1 percent increase in the 20-city index. West coast cities remained the strongest markets over the past year, with San Francisco and Denver gaining 10.7 percent through August, and Portland, Ore., jumping 9.4 percent.

CALIFORNIA PENDING HOME SALES A MIXED BAG IN SEPTEMBER, C.A.R. REPORTS Source: C.A.R. Pending home sales results varied across California in September, decreasing statewide and in Southern California, but increasing in the Central Valley and San Francisco Bay Area, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.). All regions recorded year-over-year improvements, though. Making sense of the story Statewide pending home sales decreased in September, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) decreasing 1.5 percent from a revised 112.4 in August to 110.8 in September, based on signed contracts. The month-to-month decline was better than the average August- to-September loss of 3.4 percent observed in the last seven years. On an annual basis, statewide pending home sales were up 10.9 percent from the revised 99.9 index recorded in September 2014. Pending sales have been increasing on a year-over-year basis since September 2014 and have seen double-digit increases fo...

Millennials are less likely than baby boomers to identify milestone life events that could affect their credit, according to a new survey released by TransUnion. In fact, less than half of millennials surveyed could cite specific major life events that could negatively or positively affect credit, such as divorce (40 percent compared to 57 percent of boomers) or the death of a spouse (26 percent compared to 48 percent of boomers). According to the survey, consumers of all ages are generally unprepared for life events from a credit perspective because they don’t check their scores before or after the life event. Only 49 percent of all respondents said they checked their credit when planning for or experiencing a milestone, such as marriage, having a child, or becoming unemployed. Respondents were only slightly more likely to check their credit when taking out a loan than they were when preparing for other life events. Fifty-eight percent indicated they did check their credit when apply...

While 92 percent of Americans surveyed have researched prices online before purchasing an item, only 30 percent said they look for better prices when shopping for major financial loans, such as a mortgage, according to LendingTree. Only 14 percent comparison shop loan products. LendingTree found that about 32 percent of homeowners looked at only one mortgage rate before buying their home. Roughly 18 percent stated they never looked for better rates or prices on loans.

Calif. median home price: August 2015 :  California: $493,420 Calif. highest median home price by region/county August 2015: San Francisco, $1,242,650 Calif. lowest median home price by region/county August 2015: Siskiyou, $153,330 Calif. Pending Home Sales Index : August 2015: Increased 12.8 percent from a to 112.8 Calif. Traditional Housing Affordability Index : Second Quarter 2015: 30 percent (Source: C.A.R.) Mortgage rates: Week ending 9/24/2015 (Source: Freddie Mac) • 30-yr. fixed: 3.86% fees/points: 0.7% • 15-yr. fixed: 3.08% fees/points: 0.6% • 1-yr. adjustable: 2.53% Fees/points: 0.2%

CA PENDING HOME SALES TEMPER IN AUGUST BUT STILL RECORD 10TH STRAIGHT ANNUAL INCREASE Source: C.A.R. California pending home sales declined in August but remained strong, marking 10 straight months of year-over-year gains, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). In a separate report, California REALTORS® responding to C.A.R.’s August Market Pulse Survey saw a drop in sales with multiple offers compared with July, as market competition cooled down toward the end of the home-buying season. Making sense of the story The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 12.8 percent on an annual basis to 112.8 in August, based on signed contracts. The August 2015 index was up from the 100 index recorded a year ago and marked the 10th straight month of year-to-year gains and the seventh straight month of double-digit advances. On a monthly basis, statewide pending home sales in August fell 8.7 percent on a month-to-month basis. The PHSI was down from the 123.6 index in ...

TALKING POINTS … Total mortgage application volume surged 13.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ended Sept. 18 versus the earlier week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Refinance applications, which are most rate-sensitive, increased 18 percent from the previous week. Purchase applications rose 9 percent to their highest level since June 2015. They are now 27 percent higher than the same week one year ago. Mike Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist, commented, “We saw significant rate volatility last week surrounding the [Federal Reserve’s] meeting, and rate declines toward the end of the week likely drove applications from both prospective home buyers and borrowers looking to refinance.”

Best Annual Improvement Since 2005 MCLEAN, VA--(Marketwired - Sep 23, 2015) - Freddie Mac ( OTCQB :  FMCC ) today released its updated  Multi-Indicator Market Index® (MiMi®)  showing the U.S. housing market continuing to slowly stabilize with one additional state, Rhode Island, and four additional metro areas entering their outer range of stable housing activity: Philadelphia and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Phoenix, Arizona; and Albany, New York.  The national MiMi value stands at 81, indicating a housing market that is on its outer range of stable housing activity, while showing an improvement of +0.93% from June to July and a three-month improvement of +2.99%. On a year-over-year basis, the national MiMi value has improved +6.17%. Since its all-time low in October 2010, the national MiMi has rebounded 37%, but remains significantly off from its high of 121.7.  News Facts: Twenty-nine of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia have MiMi va...

STUDY REVEALS WHAT “GREEN” MEANS TO HOME BUYERS NAHB’s publishing arm, BuilderBooks, recently released What Green Means to Home Buyers: Perceptions and Preferences, a study of consumer preferences focusing exclusively on green/high-performance features in the home and the community. The study examines consumers’ attitudes of various green features, concepts or terminologies, the resonance of those terms as potential marketing tools, and the likelihood that the home purchase decision may be influenced by any of these features or terms. According to the study, the common words home buyers use to describe green homes include: 32%: Efficient, Energy Efficient, Water Efficient, High Efficiency 15%: Eco-friendly, Environmentally-friendly, Environmentally-responsible, Environmentally-safe, Environmentally-conscious 8%: Solar, Solar Power, Solar Energy, Solar Panels 4%: Lower Costs, Lower Utility Bills, Saves Money

WHY IS HOME BUILDING LAGGING JOB CREATION? REALTORS®, BUILDERS DISAGREE Source: Wall St. Journal Home construction lagged behind job creation last year in nearly two-thirds of the 146 U.S. metro areas, according to analysis by the National Association of REALTORS® (N.A.R.). But the home-building industry’s largest trade association, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), and N.A.R. are at odds over whether supply or demand is to blame for lagging construction. Making sense of the story N.A.R. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says it’s a supply shortfall. He argues that builders “are just not robustly getting back into the game” by picking up their pace of construction. David Crowe, chief economist of the NAHB, counters that builders would churn out more houses if there was sufficient demand to warrant it. Crowe stated, “Supply is an issue; that is true. But the dominant issue still is demand. That’s the reason builders aren’t building more homes.” However, N.A.R...

Buying a home is one of the biggest decisions you’ll ever make, so you might want to talk to your REALTOR® for advice and also consider whether or not you’re getting stuck on one of these common real estate myths before signing on the dotted line. For instance, remember that you’re buying a home to suit both your future needs and your current ones, so if you want to travel in the future, a home with a lot of outdoor upkeep may not be wise. In addition, it may be best to purchase a home based on your family’s budget and needs, not your guesses about what the future may or may not hold regarding the market.

The average loan size declined by nearly $2,000 to $350,600 while the average new home price declined by nearly $4,000 to $458,000, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Even after the declines, these are the second highest numbers on record.  Since the home price declined by more than the loan amount in July, the average loan-to-price (LTP) ratio increased, from 78.3 to 78.8 percent.  This is just about as high as the LTP ratio on conventional new home loans has been recently.

Calif. median home price: June 2015 :  California: $489,560 Calif. highest median home price by region/county June 2015: San Francisco, $1,339,290 Calif. lowest median home price by region/county June 2015: Tulare, $194,170

Calif. Traditional Housing Affordability Index : Second Quarter 2015: 30 percent (Source: C.A.R.) Mortgage rates: Week ending 8/13/2015 (Source: Freddie Mac) • 30-yr. fixed: 3.94% fees/points: 0.6% • 15-yr. fixed: 3.17% fees/points: 0.6% • 1-yr. adjustable: 2.62% Fees/points: 0.3%

info   CASH SALES ACCOUNTED FOR 32 PERCENT OF ALL HOME SALES IN MAY 2015 Cash sales made up 31.9 percent of total home sales in May 2015, down from 35.1 percent in May 2014, according to Corelogic. The year-over-year share has fallen each month since January 2013, making May 2015 the 29th consecutive month of declines. Month over month, the cash sales share fell by 1.7 percentage points in May 2015 compared with April 2015. Due to seasonality in the housing market, cash sales share comparisons should be made on a year-over-year basis. The cash sales share peaked in January 2011 when cash transactions made up 46.5 percent of total home sales nationally. Prior to the housing crisis, the cash sales share of total home sales averaged approximately 25 percent. If the cash sales share continues to fall at the same rate it did in May 2015, the share should hit 25 percent by mid-2017. REO sales had the largest cash sales share in May 2015 at 56.1 percent and was the only sales category...

Mortgage applications increased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The Refinance Index increased 6 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3 percent from one week earlier.  Refinance activity was the highest since May when rates were last at this level. The increase in purchase activity was also notable for this time of year, up 23 percent relative to a year ago.

CALIFORNIA HOME SALES REACH HIGHEST LEVEL IN TWO YEARS, EXPERIENCE FIRST DOUBLE-DIGIT INCREASE SINCE MAY 2012 Sales of existing, single-family homes in June reached the highest level in two years and experienced the first double-digit increase since May 2012. The median price of an existing, single-family detached California home edged up in June from both the previous month and year for the fifth consecutive month.

CALIFORNIA PENDING HOME SALES CONTINUE ANNUAL INCREASE FOR SEVENTH STRAIGHT MONTHS   California pending home sales continued to gain steam in June, registering seven months of continued annual increases and the fifth consecutive month of double-digit increases. The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – declined slightly in June to make up 92.4 percent of all home sales, remaining near the highest level since late 2007.

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Sales of existing, single-family homes in June reached the highest level in two years and experienced the first double-digit increase since May 2012, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).  Home sales remained above the 400,000 mark in June for the third consecutive month and rose to highest level since July 2013. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 437,040 units in June. Existing, single-family home sales totaled 437,040 in June on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 3.3 percent from May and 11 percent from June 2014.